Bitcoin to $200K in 2025? Glassnode Analyst Says “Not So Fast”


As Bitcoin continues to hover near all-time highs in 2025, speculation has grown that it could double in value and reach $200,000 by the end of the year. However, not everyone is convinced. James Check, the lead on-chain analyst at Glassnode, has voiced skepticism about the likelihood of such a sharp rise in such a short time.

📉 Why the Doubt?

Check points to low trading volume as the main red flag. While Bitcoin has recently climbed past $119,000, the upward momentum hasn’t been matched by strong buying activity. He argues that without enough volume to back price movements, any continued rally becomes risky and unsustainable.

In his words, “How on earth can we be going up when there is no volume?” This lack of support, he says, creates an environment where the market is “trading through air” — meaning there’s no solid ground to stand on if prices begin to slip.

📊 Step-by-Step, Not a Leap

Rather than jumping straight to $200K, Check emphasizes that Bitcoin would need to conquer and hold several important price levels first:

  • $130,000

  • $140,000

  • $150,000

Each of these milestones requires a healthy combination of volume, market confidence, and buy-side pressure. Without this foundation, any quick rise would be fragile and prone to corrections.

🚫 The Case Against a $200K Bitcoin in 2025

While other analysts and firms have made bold predictions supporting a $200K price target, Check considers this outcome “very improbable” under current conditions. He remains cautious, refusing to engage in high-leverage trades or long positions until the market shows convincing strength.

This is not just a technical position — it’s a risk management stance. Check prefers to wait for clear on-chain signals before betting on a major price breakout.

🪙 Still Bullish Long-Term

Despite his short-term concerns, Check is far from bearish. In fact, he remains deeply optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term future, saying he believes Bitcoin will be “well and truly above $200K” in the next five years. He also openly holds most of his net worth in Bitcoin, underscoring his confidence in the asset.

His approach is one of cautious optimism: don’t fall for hype, but don’t lose sight of the bigger picture.

🔍 Summary: A Reality Check from On-Chain Data

OutlookJames Check’s View
Bitcoin at $200K by end of 2025Highly unlikely
Key reason for doubtWeak trading volume
Near-term price milestones$130K → $140K → $150K
Long-term viewStrong belief in $200K+ future
Investment strategyNo leverage, wait for volume

🧭 Final Thoughts

While headlines may cheer for dramatic Bitcoin gains, James Check brings a data-driven voice of reason. He reminds investors that real bull markets are built on sustained participation and support, not speculative frenzy. If Bitcoin is to reach $200,000, it will need more than momentum — it will need conviction.

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